The Dunning Kruger Effect in PUA

February 20, 2017

Game involves a strong element of applied psychology, and thus it behoves the aspiring player to make a review of ‘normie’ academic psychology to plunder key concepts and get abreast of the discipline. It’s not difficult to grasp because the social sciences are – to put it mildly – not where civilisation’s finest minds go to work. [1] If you’re entirely new, I’d suggest a UK A-level textbook such as Richard Gross’s Psychology. It’s written for average IQ teenagers so my esteemed readers should have no problem whizzing through it. [2]

There are some great concepts in there, even at the A-level entry point, and one I like [3] is the Dunning Kruger effect: “a cognitive bias in which low-ability individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly assessing their ability as much higher than it really is.”

Your first reaction is likely to be a scoff, at all those stupid other people who keep falling into this trap. A few seconds later you may feel a slight wobble, a tremor from deep down, that perhaps you too could fall into this trap and not realise it. Likely, you squashed that thought and turned your mind to the more spectacular examples of Dunning Kruger on PUA YouTube [4]. Generally, the literature considers the DK effect to be a problem, because it leads to an inaccurate model of the world and encourages overconfidence.

Overconfidence? you say.

"Yeah mate, I'm gonna be banging girls like this"

“Yeah mate, I’m gonna be banging girls like this”


And that’s why PUAs have a unique relationship to the DK effect. If you’re trying to build a bridge over the Rio Grande, you’d better have an accurate estimation of your engineering skills. If you’re trying to smoke out globalist traitors from the highest levels of the NSA, CIA and FBI [5], you’d better have an accurate assessment of the world.

But if you’re trying to pick up women? Well, as Heartiste has so often advised us, overconfidence is king. I don’t refer to him as often as I should so let’s lavish a full quote box on his advice, from the Sixteen Commandments Of Poon:

XI. Be irrationally self-confident
No matter what your station in life, stride through the world without apology or excuse. It does not matter if objectively you are not the best man a woman can get; what matters is that you think and act like you are. Women have a dog’s instinct for uncovering weakness in men; don’t make it easy for them. Self-confidence, warranted or not, triggers submissive emotional responses in women. Irrational self-confidence will get you more pussy than rational defeatism.

Delusions of grandeur are absolutely essential for the aspiring PUA. Speaking from my own experience, if I’d known how low my SMV really was, how bad my Game was, and how difficult the road ahead was…. I’d have given up at the beginning. The quest to bang youngerhottertighter is a foolhardy one in which we are trying to beat Nature at her own game. Most aspiring players are fucking insane for even thinking they can do it.

And yet they try, and more of them succeed in rapid escalating and first-date sodomising Mother Nature than we’d ever expect. How? How is this possible? Let’s first consider the problem. The best way to have casual sex with many pretty women is to be (i) high SMV (ii) surpremely confident (iii) sure of your eventual success. Most aspiring PUAs face the following problems:

  1. Low SMV
  2. Low confidence
  3. Persistent uncertainty

Fortunately the PUA industry has engineered a meta-game to keep its apprentices on the right path to learning the skills. It does this by engaging in the following tricks.


1. The Monomyth
Joseph Campbell wrote a masterwork distilling the key dramatic elements of literature into a single all-purpose monomyth. His book is The Hero With A Thousand Faces and I’ve written about it before. The key takeway is that when the aspiring player conceives of himself as the hero and the Player’s Journey [6] as a proxy to the Hero’s Journey he is leveraging a deep DNA-level semantic structure within his brain. He is no longer a bumbling fool engaged in a hopeless waste of time that’ll probably end in tears. Rather, he has heeded the call to adventure.

Consider the structure of typical novels and movies. As the Aaron Sorkin Masterclass makes beautifully clear, drama requires Intention and Obstacle. This is what distinguishes it from mere journalism. There is something the hero wants (in our case to bang hot birds) and there is something/s preventing him getting it (being shit with women, being sexually deselected, Nature itself…. this list is very long). The plot structure guides the hero in his quest to overcome the obstacles until finally he achieves his goal. Art house movies aside, he always achieves his goal. When inserting oneself into the monomyth, one gains a deep feeling of inevitability about success. Believe me, you’ll need that.  (Here’s an example of the daygame monomyth in action, leading to results after a tough start)

2. The Path
I remember Tyler once saying, off-hand, in his Blueprint Decoded video seminar words to the effect of “the path is there, all you have to do is walk it”. That’s a little like saying “the mountain is there, all you have to do is climb it” but the point is in the subtext. It’s not random, it’s not a jungle wilderness. There is a path. That implies:

  • People have walked it before you
  • It is well-trodden and thus easier to walk than jungle thickets
  • It leads somewhere worth going
  • It has an end

The most powerful inner game is that which rests outside our conscious mind, our assumptions and world view that inform the decisions made consciously. By conceiving of the Player’s Journey as following a path we acquire direction, purpose, and the confidence that we’re not wasting our time on a wild goose chase. That’s powerful considering our path is just an abstraction and that running around chatting up women is fundamentally a rather random act.

3. The Secret Method
Game was originally marketed just like those scam products on how to beat the lottery or the secrets to self defence. If you’re an average man, you don’t expect to achieve above-average results on a level playing field – be it sports, business or girls. The outsize results come when you deploy a tactical advantage unavailable to your competitors such as the Mohammedan hordes using heavy cavalry to colonise Europe, or Charles Martel developing heavy infantry to finally push them back. PUA promises you access to a secret system that provides a tactical advantage over not just the girls you’re seducing, but the rival males (‘chodes’) also competing for them.

When you believe you’re bringing a gun to a knife fight, you develop confidence and a sense of inevitable victory.

So how does this tie in with the Dunning Kruger effect?

Your early dabblings in pick-up will be met with crushing failure and yet…… it won’t feel that way. An objective assessment of my first thousand sets would be: “Banged two mediocre birds. Waste of time”. Yet for all my failure, pain, and despair in that first year I never truly wavered from The Path. The PUA industry had supplied me with all kinds of rationalisations to cushion the pain of reality and to nurture the flame of hope.

“Every rejection is another brick in my palace of Awesomeness”

I truly believed I was better than I really was [7] and that my results were better than they were. I always believed the tsunami of hot pussy was just around the next corner. My Dunning Kruger effect – let’s call it the Stunning Krauser effect – led me like a carrot in front of a donkey. It was my visualisation of the new identity I was growing into. Each time my real abilities advanced (as they necessarily will when you put in the work) my delusional self-image would advance with it.

Your reality may never catch up with your delusion, but so long as both move forward in lock-step, you will get better with women.

"I fucked a six! I'm halfway up!"

“I fucked a six! I’m halfway up!”

It is only when you take a pause on your journey up Relativity Mountain and gaze back at what you were that you truly appreciate how far you’ve come. Looking backwards you can drop the ego and face reality. You can say “actually, that bird was a bit minging” or “that text game was awful” and it doesn’t sting, nor does it knock you off your perilously narrow path forwards.

For the aspiring PUA, the Dunning Kruger effect is a cognitive bias that keeps you afloat while you’re learning to swim. Don’t try to overcome it.

[1] Sociology in particular is a swamp of Marxist filth that makes no effort at doing real science but takes great pains to pretend it does.
[2] A general rule when dealing with social sciences is to avoid anything written in the last twenty years, as unlike the hard sciences, the social sciences usually move backwards over time because they are so pozzed. The best work in the entire field was conducted in the fifty years leading up to 1960. I read the 1991 edition so I’ve no idea if later editions have become pozzed.
[3] By “like” I mean “recently accused of personifying, by Jimmy”
[4] I feel like Deepak Wayne deserves a nod here.
[5] Obligatory pro-Trump reference.
[6] It’s no coincidence that I coined this phrase to describe our efforts to get better with women.
[7] Still do. No reason to dismantle a successful delusion mechanism.

If you like the idea of inserting yourself into a monomyth in order to chart your progress upon the Player’s Journey, you might well like my book. It’s the most detailed map of The Path ever written.


  1. some superb mindwank here Nicky! missed your posts luv!

  2. well god damn, this was a legit post.

  3. The Stunning Krauser effect. Love it!

  4. Agreed, great analysis/”mind-wank.”

    >> It does not matter if objectively you are not the best man a woman can get; what matters is that you think and act like you are.

    Lance Mason used to talk about a woman’s cleavage, and say it was “always on, and always effective” at getting to us. He asked what the equivalent might be for men… something we could (potentially) have “always on, and always effective.”

    And then he throws his arms back, sticks his chest out, cocky smile… and goes, “Like this.”

    It’s the posture of ridiculous confidence. And it is like female cleavage… terribly effective. She can’t look away.

    I never forgot that lesson. I did it last night at dinner… at the right moment, threw my arms back, cocky/arrogant look, “Yeah.” And a smile. She loved it. Stupid confidence. Brilliant game (when combined with some actual value).

    I would add to this, that “leadership” and “stupid confidence” are often the same thing. And people/girls… need a plan. Even the wrong plan, is a start. Stupid confidence wins again.

    (SIDE NOTE: I was looking for some good pics of “cocky” to send to girls, and I wasn’t finding what I was looking for. So I switched to arrogant, and realized it was exactly what I wanted. Confident, arrogant — but in a fun way — winning.)

  5. sorry guys for the topic change but this is the funniest pick up linne what I’ve ever heard… What do you guys think about it? Krauser, can you make something analyse? THANKS!!!!!!!

    1:42 it’s kinda funny, and really badass… [I found it really cringe. K.]

    • it’s funny once or twice but only in the context of a prank video. IRL it would be inefficient and largely unsuccessful, way too try hard.
      also, the guy seemingly has no actual game, as can be observed during times when the convo goes off script. he doesn’t have any lateral movement in his convo.

      this 11 year old kid is much better –

      smart, funny and irreverent.

      you want some croutons? lol

      • In a similar vein, how would you guys rate the success ratio of this troll’s 100% physique, 0% verbal game? Sadly, I can see him easily sport fucking 2% of his opens, which is more than 99% of those who attempt daygame will ever achieve, and of higher relative quality too. Thank god for the Dunning Kruger effect.

      • yolomofo: don’t be that stupid… that guy is going to the gym every day… that’s a tons of wor, he is working his ass off

      • @Mcs And where in my post did I say that he’s not doing any work? Learn to read.

        On a related note it’s hilarious to see daygame nerds like John Bodi get into a mental hissy fit and grind his sets year after year, yet make 0 discernible effort to get his fat ass in shape. One wonders what’s the psychology behind that.

  6. that’s not better….

    But yeah, the kid has really big balls…bigger than some adult have

  7. Listen Kruster, I know you watch all my youtubes videos and admire my pick-up tenacity. This is not Chad Kruger Effect (Nickelback), this is an actual handsome man with confidence based on real life SKILLZ. There is no delusion when you’re an ugly old paki spitting that Indian accent game on younger hotter riper. I recently posted a video about pick-up in Poland. I fucked 8 girls in 4 weeks, all multiple times. If you do the maths, this means 8 x 3 = 24 sexy times. This means I was having sex almost every day as an ugly paki with HOT YOUNG WHITE BITCHES. Doubt me now. Prooves videos are easy to see. All the youtubes comments are from ethnics that believe everything I say, because why wouldn’t they? I have PROOVE videos, unlike you Kruster, you sell out. [Best one for a while. Bravo. K.]

  8. It’s interesting and flattering that you think I fit the description of a daygame monomyth. I’ve just read your original post about it ( I’ll see if I can find events during my daygame journey up to now that fit into the different stages and acts, and see if I can write a post about it.

  9. Good post, and coming a critical time for me. I’ve had a recent run of success, but I know it’s not going to last forever. But, it’ll provide some good reference experiences for me which I’ll capitalize on in the future.

    Right now though, I’m feeling on top of the world…

  10. Truth be told, I think most guys want a girlfriend when they start game and they somehow twist it into their own blue pill monomyth,

    Great post!


    • Yep, totally. I’d bet most guys at least start out just wanting to learn game so they can settle down happily ever after with their girl-next-door ONEitis. The problem I found is that this idyll starts grinding up against reality in a very nasty way after a while.

  11. My EE white bitches can’t get enough of my paki hairy beanbag! Stick that in your pipe and smoke it krauser!👳🏾🖕🏽🖕🏽🖕🏽

  12. “Delusions of grandeur are absolutely essential for the aspiring PUA. Speaking from my own experience, if I’d known how low my SMV really was, how bad my Game was, and how difficult the road ahead was…. I’d have given up at the beginning”

    I’m wondering what advice you’d give someone who comes to this realisation before they’ve managed to get through Beginner’s Hell (under 500 approaches). Particularly for guys who become red pill aware towards the start of their journey while they still have no positive reference experiences with pretty girls.

    When I was starting out right at the beginning I had this delusional belief about how good my game was and no doubt overestimated my SMV based on the standard beta blue pill measures (decent job, qualifications, nice clothes, pleasant demeanor). One side effect of reading blogs like this is that I can no longer seem to do that irrational confidence thing, now that I realise the things that previously made me a ‘catch’ in my mind are irrelevant to a woman’s sexual interest or, at worst, a form of pussy-repellent. I’m painfully aware of how uncool I am, yet don’t really have the resources to start living outside the Matrix, at least not in the near future.

    • job and qualifications should still give you a sense of and in fact do make you a “catch” but in fact you don’t want to be a catch, you want to be a guy girls wouldn’t consider as a boyfriend, but would consider as a sport fuck. so generally you don’t want to mention your job, or pretty much anything else about yourself, when your’re macking on a chick.
      nice clothes? or fashionable? presentation is important, find a style that works for you, but nothing generic. and a pleasant demeanor isn’t a bad thing, as long as you’re not “nice” or agreeable all the time.

      read krauser from the start, in chronological order. to see what is possible and learn some methods for how.
      read, (go back and read all of chase’s older articles, you can generally skip the other writers) and join the forums. (basic GC advice – keep it simple, move fast, escalate for information, shut up about yourself and talk about her, concentrate on fundamentals) you will now be armed to the teeth, stylish, sexy and, as you’ve been out approaching girls in the meanwhile, you will have plenty of reference points and experiences, and probably a few notches on your belt.

      have at it brother.

      • i’m gonna add one more thing. read this:

        copy paste it into your phone notepad, read it periodically and internalize that mindset.

      • Thanks man, looks like a helpful blog. I enjoy reading a lot of the Manosphere blogs but I think they’re also killing my vibe (probably a fairly common trap).

        I guess another stumbling point is that I don’t really understand how to appreciate women from a red pill perspective. My blue pill misconceptions about women kept me going initially. I’d be happy to do approach after approach when I had the belief that something magical was just round the corner. Now I’m struggling to throw myself into approaches. Not because my approach anxiety is that bad (the guys who wing with me initially overestimate my confidence based on how little fear I show when opening). I often think that if I met a guy who acted like a woman (flakey, emotional, irrational) I would have nothing to do with him. So what do women offer besides a warm body?

        I’m struggling with this. A friend of mine has seen me in the field, and he described my problem not as approach anxiety, but ‘approach apathy’.

  13. I told you 2017 ……

  14. Pingback: “Always on, always effective” | Rivelino's Diary

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